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Year 2000- 'Millennium bug' gets dissected
by Kevin McKenzie
THE COMMERCIAL APPEAL

NASHVILLE -- It is already too late to fix all of the computers and computer chips that won't know the difference between the year 2000 and the year 1900.

In a world that depends upon computers to provide the necessities of modern life - including electricity, telecommunications, transportation and banking - the year 2000 computer glitch poses a very real, very big, very expensive problem.

One speaker at a conference in Nashville on Monday, author Michael S. Hyatt, said the worst result of the "Millennium Bug" could be chaos. Hyatt suggested that everyone start working on emergency preparedness plans, just in case.

"The Millennium Bug threatens our core infrastructure," Hyatt said. "Certainly it is a threat to every business internally, but beyond that, it is a threat to our core infrastructure. And if that's not repaired in time, then every business, every home, every church, every synagogue, every entity that depends on that core infrastructure is also at risk."

However, Peter de Jager, considered the dean of experts speaking about the "Y2K" problem, was less strident and more certain that the world will survive its biggest computer crisis. He predicted localized problems for two or three months, but no nationwide or global meltdowns.

"I do not believe that the news is so bad that we have to head for the hills; nor do I believe it's so good that we can rest complacent," said de Jager, a Canadian who has been speaking out about the worldwide computer challenge for seven years.

"We have risks ahead of us, and we are going to have failures ahead of us," he said. "I happen to believe though that we will come through them within a two to three month period."

Rep. Bob Clement (D-Tenn.) chose the year 2000 computer problem as the subject of his 10th annual economic conference in Nashville. About 400 to 500 people attended.

Technology was demonstrated as well as discussed. Audience members participated in instant polls using wireless keypads provided by The Public Forum Institute, a Washington-based group that fosters dialog and debate.

Hyatt is senior vice president and associate publisher of Thomas Nelson Publishers in Nashville, as well as a self-taught computer programmer and author of The Millennium Bug: How to Survive the Coming Chaos. Coming soon is his novel, Y2K: The Day the World Shut Down.

Decades ago, computer programmers caused the Year 2000 glitch by including only the last two digits of the year in computer instructions. They did so to save computer memory and storage space that was then limited and expensive.

The problem is that the two digits for the year 2000 will be "00," and, under the old standard, computers will operate as if that means the year 1900. Hyatt said the date dilemma will cause some computers to crash, while others will deliver faulty data.

A Social Security computer, for instance, this year would calculate the age of someone born in 1933 by subtracting 33 from 98. In 2000, an unrepaired computer would attempt to subtract 33 from 00, yielding a negative 33.

The Social Security Administration sends 43 million checks a month, he said.  That federal agency, by the way, recently received an "A" for its efforts to fix the Y2K problems. However, several other federal agencies lag far behind.

The computer problem extends from large mainframe computers to desktops, from hardware to software.

In addition, date-sensitive computer chips inside devices ranging from appliances and fax machines to satellites and oil pipelines, may fail, Hyatt said. Only a small percentage, perhaps 2 to 5 percent, will trip up.

"The problem is, we don't know which 5 percent without checking 100 percent, " he said. "It's an impossible task in the time remaining."

Hyatt said the problem threatens core infrastructure industries, defined as those providing electricity, telecommunications, transportation, water, banking and finance.

Companies have been slow to spend to fix the problem because the return on the investment is zero, Hyatt said. In addition, millions spent on the glitch threaten the bottom line and, therefore, bonuses for chief executives. Rather than a crisis in technology, the problem represents a crisis in leadership for business and government, he said.

"We've procrastinated ourselves right into a corner," Hyatt said. The result could range from recession to depression, brownouts to blackouts, from social frustration to chaos. He urged planning for disaster through emergency preparedness, just in case.

"Y2K is potentially the mother of all things we didn't plan on," Hyatt said.

However, he urged working at breakneck speed on fixing the problems because the more computers and chips that are repaired or replaced, the fewer the disruptions.

De Jager said that after years of focusing on the Y2K issue, he has gone from being labeled a dread merchant in his early days to an optimist today. "I do not believe in meltdown scenarios," said de Jager, Toronto-based president of Petrus & Associates Ltd. and de Jager & Co. Ltd.

"I get asked every single day should I take all my money out of the bank. The answer is no."

De Jager said organizations have prioritized computer problems and concentrated on those critical to maintaining services. While there will be some local problems, he predicted no national or global disasters will result from the 2000 computer problem.

"Argument about the future is sort of futile," he said. "We really don't know what's going to happen."

As 2000 approaches, problems will crop up and resources and ingenuity will be directed to solve them, he said. Some challenges will be minor, and can wait. "So your microwave oven doesn't work. Who cares?"

De Jager recommended taking an inventory of all electronic equipment and asking: "If the sucker fails, do I care?" The answers, he said, might erase 90 percent of the items from the Y2K things-to-do list.

De Jager said politicians, including Vice President Gore, have failed to address the problem. But panel members - includ-

ing representatives of Tennessee Valley Authority, Southwest Airlines, BellSouth Telecommunications, Columbia/HCA and the Small Business Administration - offered assurances that the problem is being addressed.

"On Jan. 1, 2000, your phone will work," said Bob Marmorato, assistant vice president for BellSouth's information technology service management.

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